Overseas, spot gold prices edged higher, reaching a daily high of $2743.12 and a low of $2715.50, eventually closing at $2735.85. Today, in the Asian market, gold is slightly down, currently hovering around $2718.
The "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve" has once again released news!
Overseas, the three major U.S. stock indices closed with mixed results. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.33%, the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.76%.
Overseas, Tesla's stock price surged significantly, with a gain of over 19% during trading. In terms of news, Tesla's latest disclosed financial report showed that the company's third-quarter profits greatly exceeded expectations, and it provided a surprising guidance of a 20% to 30% increase in car sales for next year. Additionally, the American delivery giant UPS also received good financial news, with its stock price once surging by over 10%.
Despite the constant major news during the earnings season, the overall U.S. stock market remains in a narrow range of fluctuations.
Wall Street analysts pointed out that, considering the restlessness of U.S. Treasury bonds, the overall U.S. stock market is still in a state of lack of direction, with only individual stocks being greatly affected by the earnings season, experiencing significant rises and falls.
Firstly, in terms of economic data, the number of initial jobless claims was lower than expected.
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Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims for the week ending October 19 was 227,000, lower than the expected 242,000, and down from the previous week's 241,000.
The number of continuing unemployment benefit claimants increased to nearly 1.9 million in the previous week, the highest level in nearly three years. The four-week moving average of new claims rose to 238,500.
The hurricanes that have struck large areas of the southern United States in recent weeks have not only led to many people becoming unemployed but may also prevent them from applying for benefits immediately, causing weekly data fluctuations. Economists have stated that the underlying trend may still be difficult to predict in the coming weeks.Next, the Federal Reserve boldly broke the world's silence.
In his latest speech, Harmark, a 2024 FOMC voter and the President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, stated that U.S. inflation has slowed down, but it has not yet reached the 2% target. The Federal Reserve has not declared that its mission on inflation is accomplished, and geopolitical events could lead to a reversal in inflation.
The Federal Reserve is adept at timing, allowing investors to gradually accept these ambiguous statements during moments of market calm and direction-seeking. If these statements were made on a trading day with significant data, they would typically fuel the fire.
According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 96.3%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 3.7%. By December, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 1%, the cumulative probability of lowering rates by 25 basis points is 28.5%, and the cumulative probability of lowering rates by 50 basis points is 70.5%.
Under the dominance of the "no-landing economy," U.S. stocks are still close to historical highs this month, while the U.S. bond market has sparked a sell-off wave of severity comparable to that of 1995.
Analysts believe that the rise in U.S. bond yields is partly driven by high tariff claims, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures.
For U.S. stocks, the market is repricing the possibility of significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Some economic sectors have not yet felt the impact of rate hikes, but the longer interest rates remain high, the more these sectors will need to readjust to accommodate this reality, as the economy is already out of balance. The most highly valued stocks in the U.S. market are large-cap stocks, and due to the ongoing risk of recession, the market may experience a pullback in the short term. Looking ahead, there is still considerable uncertainty in the market before the Federal Reserve's rate cut in November, compounded by the high level of U.S. stocks, which may maintain volatility.
Gold Price Analysis on October 25thFrom a technical perspective, the trend is not particularly weak. After the decline at the daily level the day before yesterday, there was a rebound yesterday, and the overall trend did not break below the 5-day moving average at the daily level. Today's market has not yet ended.
Looking at the 4-hour level, there is a need for the market to adjust, with the difference being whether it is a horizontal adjustment or a downward adjustment.
If it is a horizontal adjustment, then around 2707 can be considered a low point, with a high point around 2740, forming a horizontal continuation in the upward trend. If it is a downward adjustment, the trend must effectively break below the low point of 2707 from the day before yesterday and continue to move downward.
In terms of rhythm, the intraday market is falling along the 5-day moving average at the 4-hour level, with support around 2707. There is some hesitation here before a decision is made.
From a trading standpoint, the magnitude of this downward wave may not be very large. Those who are capable can participate, and if the market confirms a downward adjustment, it will be easier to operate later on. Therefore, it is also possible to wait and see.
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