Gold Market Trend Analysis -
The global financial market continues to operate amidst uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and market concerns about energy demand are all key factors driving market trends. As major institutions release their latest analyses and forecasts, fluctuations in the gold, foreign exchange, and crude oil markets become increasingly apparent. The market is now widely betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting. The latest CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market's expectation for this rate cut has reached as high as 90%. This news of consecutive rate cuts has, to some extent, aided the gold bulls. Therefore, in recent trading sessions, we can see a bias towards buying gold on dips, and there is reason for gold's upward momentum.
Technical Analysis:
From the 4-hour chart, the lowest test last night was around 2709. Drawing a Fibonacci retracement from this wave of gold price increase, last night's pullback was between the 38.2% and 23.6% levels, and it touched the previous top-bottom conversion level near 2714, which was also the low point in the early morning of this Tuesday, forming a double bottom support effect. Therefore, compared to the daily increase in recent days, the pullback's strength is slightly larger, but overall, it has not destroyed the momentum for the bulls to continue pushing higher.
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Gold Strategy -
The key trading suggestion for the market is to go long around 2710-2715 when it breaks through 2740-2745. Focus on the resistance at 2770-2775 and the support near 2700-2705.
Crude Oil Strategy -
US crude oil continues to rebound, recovering more than 1% of the previous trading day's loss after the US announced a higher-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories. It tests the box pressure and has not yet broken through the moving average. Although the EIA inventory data showed a significant increase, it did not affect the rebound sentiment of oil prices. After falling back, it continued to rise. The resumption of inflation expectations in commodities suggests the possibility of further rebound in oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the emotional changes in geopolitical situations. As refineries end their seasonal autumn maintenance, the amount of refined oil further increases, and distillate oil slightly decreased last week. The ongoing concern about the potential risk of oil supply disruption due to conflicts in the Middle East has somewhat offset the impact of increased crude oil inventories on prices. Overall, the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" survey shows that from September to early October, there was almost no change in US economic activity, and hiring by businesses increased slightly, continuing the recent trend. This has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will choose a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points in two weeks. A series of recent economic data on consumer spending, employment growth, and inflation have been stronger than expected, leading investors to adjust their bets on the pace and magnitude of US rate cuts.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil:
Last week, crude oil's weekly chart showed a medium阴线, giving up its gains and returning to the low point to seek support. After a wave of consecutive positive days, it turned into a wave of consecutive negative days. The rebound was just a correction, and the give-up is still weak. Crude oil has fallen back to the lower rail of a wide range, previously rebounding under pressure and then converting to weakness. It is now close to the low point support and testing the strength of the low point's defense. The current small cycle structure is slightly weak, with a step back on the 4-hour chart. Looking at the 4-hour level of crude oil, the Bollinger Bands are gradually opening upwards. The short-term trend is to first look at the 4-hour Bollinger Bands range for consolidation, and then see the continuation of the trend after breaking through. The Middle East geopolitical issue remains unresolved, and considering the many factors affecting investor expectations to swing, market volatility is expected to further increase. Although oil prices have rebounded, the market still lacks clear guidance, and there is no driver strong enough to change the震荡格局. It is recommended to be patient and wait for opportunities with certainty, and to participate cautiously. In summary, the teacher suggests that the main idea for crude oil operations today is to focus on回踩low and take a high position on the rebound. The short-term resistance is at 72.5-73.5, and the short-term support is at 70.5-69.5. Specific entry points will be given in real-time in the live disk!Spot Silver -
The silver market opened yesterday at the position of 34.833 and then the market slightly rose to give the position of 34.685. After that, the market strongly fell back, with the daily low reaching 33.418. At the end of the day, the market rebounded, and the daily line finally closed at the position of 33.681. The market ended with a long lower shadow and a large negative line. After such a pattern, the daily line is enveloped by the negative line. Today's market has a downward pressure. Today's suggestion is to go short at 34.35, with a stop loss at 34.55. The target below is to look at 33.4. If it breaks, it will look at 33.15 and then support at 32.9.
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