Today, gold continues to plummet, and some people may choose to exit the market. Yesterday, I replenished my position, and currently, I am at 40% capacity. Today, due to being busy with work, I forgot the time and failed to inject funds in time. Many people panic and flee when the market is falling, but actually, a decline is the best time to get on board. Buy a little when there's a small drop, and go heavy when there's a significant drop. This is why some people sigh, "If only I had gone heavy during a big drop," but when the market really falls, they wait, thinking, "I'll get on board when it drops even lower." But the world doesn't have that kind of time to wait; every minute and every second, people are making full preparations, just to jump higher than others and to gain returns more accurately. So, there's no such thing as the best timing; it's just about being able to recognize one's own risk tolerance and profit targets, being able to correctly analyze the political and economic situation, getting on board when you see the opportunity, and getting off when you reach your profit target.
So, what will the gold market look like next week? How fierce will the competition among bulls be? Let's take a look together.
I. Opinions of Experts and Investors
According to the Kitco Gold Survey, this week 14 analysts participated in the survey, with 6 (43%) expecting gold prices to rise next week, 6 (43%) expecting gold prices to consolidate, and 2 (14%) predicting a decline in gold prices. In Kitco's online survey, 296 people voted, with 173 retail traders (58%) expecting gold prices to rise next week, 67 (23%) expecting gold prices to fall, and 56 (19%) holding a neutral stance.
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II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
2.1 Upward Factors
2.1.1 Geopolitical Situation
The instability of regional situations remains the main factor supporting the strong gold prices at present.
2.1.2 Global Economic SituationThe global economy is at risk of falling into a path of low growth and high debt. When economic growth slows down and faces the risk of recession, investors tend to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, thereby driving up the price of gold.
2.1.3 Monetary Policy
The market expects central banks around the world to continue to ease monetary policy. Last week, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the third time this year. Currently, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November. The probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in both November and December has risen to 70%. The global entry into a low-interest-rate environment is beneficial to gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
2.1.4 Market Demand
In the first half of this year, demand for gold in Asia surged. In the past few months, Western capital has also been continuously flowing into gold-related ETF products.
2.1.5 Technical Analysis
The intermediate weekly K-line chart shows that the overall upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged. Since the rise in July, gold prices have undergone normal adjustments after every three to four consecutive weeks of increases. It is now the third week since the rise from the low point of $2,605 in this round, and a brief adjustment in prices is a normal and healthy correction. The intermediate strong pattern remains unchanged.
2.2 Downward Factors
2.2.1 U.S. Dollar Trend
The U.S. dollar and gold prices usually have an inverse relationship. When the U.S. dollar strengthens, gold prices often come under pressure.2.2.2 Market Profit-Taking
Some investors taking profits may lead to a decline in gold prices.
2.2.3 Technical Analysis
The daily K-line chart indicates that gold prices are generally in a short-term adjustment and recovery phase. If the resistance at the $2,740-2,750 range cannot be consistently broken, the likelihood of gold prices falling into further adjustment and recovery is relatively high, with the next important support level to watch being the $2,700 psychological mark. Should this level be breached, gold prices could further decline towards the previous level near $2,680.
III. Comprehensive Analysis
The upward momentum of gold prices in the medium to long term has not ended. However, if gold prices consistently fail to break through the resistance at the $2,740-2,750 range in the short term, the probability of further adjustment and recovery is relatively high. Next week, attention should be paid to the impact of events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on the gold price trend.
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